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The Global Geography of Long-Term Projected Macroeconomic Damages from Chronic Physical Risk: The Aggregation Problem.
・ISBN 978-1-047-78180-0 hard GB£ 55.00
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| 著者・編者 | Schneider, Nicolas, |
|---|---|
| シリーズ | (Elements in Quantitative Finance) |
| 出版社 | (Cambridge University Press, UK) |
| 出版年月 | 2026 |
| ページ数 | 75 pp. |
| 言語 | ENG |
| ニュース番号 | ＜A05-87639＞ |
解説
Does the macro-level relationship between temperature and output comprehensively reflect the patterns observed sub-nationally? This Element quantifies heterogeneous productivity-growth responses to plausibly exogenous temperature and precipitation fluctuations using unbalanced panels over 1970-2018 (166 countries from Penn World Tables 10.01; >1,500 sub-national regions from MCC-PIK). It projects climate change-driven permanent damages to the level of GDP per capita by compounding physical risk-induced productivity-growth deviations over time. These transitory shocks are calculated by combining econometrically estimated response functions with an ensemble of NEX-GDDP CMIP6 simulations from 29 global climate models, which are extrapolated to 3,672 provinces covering 95% of global economic production. First, this study provides a basis for producing spatially disaggregated projections of climate-induced economic damages that consistently encompass most productive regions. Second, it shows that accounting for spatially granular climatic exposure and intra-country economic heterogeneity yields aggregated losses that alter the conclusions of previous global GDP models.