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Shots in the Dark : The Bad Decision-Making Behind US Wars from Korea to Afghanistan. 朝鮮戦争からアフガニスタン紛争までのアメリカの戦争の背後にある悪い意思決定
・ISBN 978-0-231-22437-6 hard US$ 140.00
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納品価格につきましては書籍の入荷時点で確定となります。
版元の原価改定、外国為替の変動等により異なる場合がございますので、予めご了承下さい。
お気に入り
★★★
・ISBN 978-0-231-22438-3 paper US$ 35.00
￥8,200.- (税込) ※（※）価格はご注文時の参考価格となります。
納品価格につきましては書籍の入荷時点で確定となります。
版元の原価改定、外国為替の変動等により異なる場合がございますので、予めご了承下さい。
お気に入り
★★★
| 著者・編者 | Lebovic, James, |
|---|---|
| 出版社 | (Columbia U. Pr., US) |
| 出版年月 | 2026.09 |
| ページ数 | 320 pp. |
| 言語 | ENG |
| ニュース番号 | ＜774-688 774-760＞ |
解説
Why have US wars so often failed to go as planned? Four of the major conflicts in the post-World War II era-Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan-lasted far longer, cost far more, and yielded far poorer results than what prewar predictions anticipated.
Shots in the Dark offers a new analysis of the pervasive biases that have afflicted decision-making in the lead-up to and early days of US military interventions. James H. Lebovic shows that leaders repeatedly made choices marred by short-term thinking and cognitive blind spots, lacking a clear sense of how particular policies would accomplish broader strategic objectives. Policymakers fixated on achieving immediate results through force of arms without interrogating buried assumptions, mapping out the potential consequences, reconciling conflicting priorities, or considering tradeoffs. Such flawed reasoning eventually made military force appear to be the only viable option.
To account for this persistent pattern, Lebovic develops an original theory of "instrumental bias," reveals its telltale tendencies, and uncovers its results in the Korean, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan wars. Meticulously assessing the documentary evidence, he provides detailed reconstructions of top-level decision-making at key stages of these conflicts. Engagingly written and richly detailed, Shots in the Dark illuminates the biased thinking that has long undermined US foreign policy.
Shots in the Dark offers a new analysis of the pervasive biases that have afflicted decision-making in the lead-up to and early days of US military interventions. James H. Lebovic shows that leaders repeatedly made choices marred by short-term thinking and cognitive blind spots, lacking a clear sense of how particular policies would accomplish broader strategic objectives. Policymakers fixated on achieving immediate results through force of arms without interrogating buried assumptions, mapping out the potential consequences, reconciling conflicting priorities, or considering tradeoffs. Such flawed reasoning eventually made military force appear to be the only viable option.
To account for this persistent pattern, Lebovic develops an original theory of "instrumental bias," reveals its telltale tendencies, and uncovers its results in the Korean, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan wars. Meticulously assessing the documentary evidence, he provides detailed reconstructions of top-level decision-making at key stages of these conflicts. Engagingly written and richly detailed, Shots in the Dark illuminates the biased thinking that has long undermined US foreign policy.