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Optimal Control, Expectations and Uncertainty.

Optimal Control, Expectations and Uncertainty.

・ISBN 978-0-521-26444-0 hard GB£ 104.00

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お気に入り
電子版あり 大学・学術機関向け電子ブック(eBook)ISBN 9780511521973
著者・編者Holly, Sean / Hughes Hallet, Andrew,
出版社 (Cambridge University Press, UK)
出版年月1989
ページ数260 pp.
言語ENG
ニュース番号<A03-24917>

解説

The rational expectations revolution and other developments in economics (notably game theory) have fundamentally altered the application of optimal control theory to economic forecasting and planning. In particular, they have shown that economic systems cannot be modelled simplistically on physical systems. However, as the authors of this volume show, these developments have greatly enhanced our understanding of how an economy functions, and now make it possible for optimal control theory to be applied much more effectively to economic modelling and planning. This book is divided into two parts. The first presents the orthodox framework but extends it to allow for multiplicative uncertainty, risk and non-linearities in the econometric model. The second part looks explicitly at the question of expectations. It provides methods by which forward-looking expectations can be treated jointly with the determination of economic policy. It also examines game-theoretic considerations - where, for instance, policy makers may have incentive to renege on their commitments.