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Forecasting Economic Time Series.
・ISBN 978-0-521-63242-3 hard GB£ 114.00
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・ISBN 978-0-521-63480-9 paper GB£ 47.00
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★★★
電子版あり 大学・学術機関向け電子ブック(eBook)ISBN 978-0-511-59928-6
| 著者・編者 | Clements, Michael P. / Hendry, David F., |
|---|---|
| 出版社 | (Cambridge U. Pr., UK) |
| 出版年月 | 1998 |
| ページ数 | 368 pp. |
| 言語 | ENG |
| ニュース番号 | <250-2072 260-6592> |
解説
This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.