株式会社極東書店トップ商品一覧Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography : Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies.

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Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography : Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies.

【Open Accessタイトル】

・ISBN 978-3-030-83038-0 hard EUR 49.99

¥13,361.- (税込) (※)価格はご注文時の参考価格となります。
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・ISBN 978-3-030-83041-0 paper EUR 39.99

¥10,688.- (税込) (※)価格はご注文時の参考価格となります。
納品価格につきましては書籍の入荷時点で確定となります。
版元の原価改定、外国為替の変動等により異なる場合がございますので、予めご了承下さい。

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著者・編者Bijak, Jakub,
シリーズMethodos Series
出版社(Springer, GW)
出版年月2021.10
ページ数390 pp.
言語ENG
ニュース番号<666-2639 666-611>

解説

This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration ? one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from bespoke laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.