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Russia's Comparative Advantages in Foreign Trade : Forecasting Potential Dynamics and Identifying Stimulation Measures. 外国貿易におけるロシアの比較優位
・ISBN 978-3-631-63993-1 hard SFR 44.60
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| 著者・編者 | Savin, Ivan, |
|---|---|
| シリーズ | Schriften zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung |
| 出版社 | (PL Academic Research, SZ) |
| 出版年月 | 2013 |
| ページ数 | 135 pp. |
| 言語 | GER |
| ニュース番号 | <606-363> |
解説
Identifying factors which stimulate regional growth and international competitiveness and using them for forecasting are the aims of this book. Departing from the theory of comparative advantages and their impact, the author demonstrates that such an approach has to be based on a sound theoretical foundation and on appropriate, advanced econometric methods. He proposes the use of heuristic optimization techniques, Monte Carlo simulation experiments and Lasso-type estimators to avoid bias or misleading findings, which might be the result of applying standard regression methods when key assumptions are not satisfied. In addition, the author demonstrates how some heuristic optimization-based methods can be used to obtain forecasts of industrial production in Russia and Germany founded on past observations and some leading indicators.