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Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.

• Front Matter
• Summary
• 1 Climate Change as a National Security Concern
• 2 Climate Change, Vulnerability, and National Security: A Conceptual Framework
• 3 Potentially Disruptive Climate Events
• 4 How Climate Events Can Lead to Social and Political Stresses
• 5 Climate Events and National Security Outcomes
• 6 Methods for Assessing National Security Threats
• References
• Appendix A: Committee Member and Staff Biographies
• Appendix B: Briefings Received by the Committee
• Appendix C: Method for Developing Figure 3-1
• Appendix D: Statistical Methods for Assessing Probabilities of Extreme Events
• Appendix E: Foundations for Monitoring ClimateSecurity Connections